FXUS64 KMRX 172321
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
721 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue into Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and some
  thunderstorms late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions are once again warm and dry across the region this
afternoon. Blended in some NBM10 to the dewpoints for this afternoon
and evening to lower RH values as has been done in recent days. Dry
conditions continue overnight and into the midday or early afternoon
hours tomorrow before rain chances increase tomorrow night due to an
an approaching cold front from the west.

Frontal passage looks to fall between 8pm and maybe 11pm tomorrow
evening. Most precipitation will fall in close proximity to the
front but some guidance indicates some possibility of convection
developing out ahead of the front. Model soundings aren't too
impressive with respect to severe chances. However, there is
supporting evidence of a very low end damaging wind threat. Model
soundings show several hundred Joules of downdraft CAPE in the late
afternoon and early evening hours just ahead of the front. Using
HREF ensemble max wind gusts as a proxy for convective wind gust
potential, it shows some areas exceeding 40-45 mph tomorrow evening
as well, mainly in the south where it will be warmer and more deeply
mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a few reports of some
downed trees. I also wouldn't be surprised if there are no strong
storms whatsoever and it's just a breezy, convective frontal passage
given the marginal environment.

Otherwise, behind the front temperatures cool significantly and
another very dry air mass will move in. Freezing levels do fall
quickly behind the front, but it appears precip will wrap up before
they're low enough to mention any sort of chance of snow showers in
the higher terrain. We'll be much cooler Sunday through Monday
night. Could see some potential frost in the north on Sunday and
Monday nights if it's not too dry. After the cooldown, temperatures
steadily rebound through next week with dry conditions expected to
continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. An approaching cold
front will have showers out ahead of the front, but timing will be
pretty close to or just after the end of this TAF period for
impacts both rain and VIS/CIG wise at the 3 terminals. Otherwise
southwest winds will increase tomorrow ahead of the rain, with
gusts 20 to 25 knots at TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  87  49  68 /   0  20  90  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  85  47  64 /   0  30  90  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  85  46  65 /   0  40 100  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  84  45  61 /   0  30  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...Wellington