FXUS63 KOAX 151107 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding. - Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe weather potential. - Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from 7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty winds. Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the night. Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east- northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid-80s. Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers remaining. Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the freezing mark. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotty showers and storms this morning are favored to remain out of the TAF sites. Higher chances arrive this afternoon at OFK, but guidance suggests higher storm chances will remain east of OMA and LNK for now. That said, still have a 20-30% chance from around 19-00Z. Otherwise, expect a band of MVFR ceilings at OMA and LNK this morning before they rise to VFR/scatter out this afternoon with only passing high clouds after (barring a storm). Expect northeasterly winds to become more northerly this morning, northwesterly this afternoon, and southwesterly this evening. Speeds should generally remain at or below 10 kts outside of any storms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA