FXUS64 KOHX 142356
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels,
  low RH values and gusty winds.

- Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday.

- There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and
  Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is
  anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

It's dry and quiet across the area. That will be the story again
on Wednesday with elevated fire danger due to RH values dropping
below 30%, gusty winds, and lower than normal fuel moisture.
Temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early-
season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through
tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing
to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35%
range most areas, and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our
northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances
to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some
instability with this environment, especially over northwest
portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is
very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope
that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the
frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through
Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from
northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep
across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF
values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact,
the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the
convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so
that will definitely limit the severe potential. However,
temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and
that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low
temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from
the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may
even wake up to a light frost.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Clouds are thinning out
with the lowest cigs around 5 kft. Southerly winds will relax
below 10 kts overnight, becoming southwesterly and breezy after
15Z. Gusts between 15-25 kts can be expected through Wednesday
afternoon with passing mid to high level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  86  65  83 /   0   0   0  60
Clarksville    67  86  66  83 /   0   0  10  80
Crossville     57  82  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       62  85  63  84 /   0   0   0  50
Cookeville     60  83  62  80 /   0   0   0  40
Jamestown      59  83  60  81 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   61  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  40
Murfreesboro   62  86  63  84 /   0   0   0  50
Waverly        66  86  67  83 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Baggett