FXUS64 KOHX 150307
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1007 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels,
  low RH values and gusty winds.

- Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday.

- There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and
  Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat
  is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Upper ridging influences will continue on Wednesday with dry, warm,
and breezy conditions. This will continue the enhanced fire risk
with drier than average fuels for this time of year. RH values will
drop below 30% during the afternoon with 10-15 mph winds. A
shortwave trough will approach the area Wednesday night with a low
chance of a shower prior to 12z.

The higher rain chances will be after sunrise on Thursday with
medium to high chances through the day. There is a low chance that a
couple additional storms develop over west Tennessee in the
afternoon and move into our western counties. Some cooler mid
level temperatures will be in place during the afternoon
providing some steeper lapse rates along with 30-35 kts of
effective bulk shear. IF storms manage to develop in the afternoon
and make it into our western part of the CWA, there is a low
chance they could produce gusty winds and large hail. This is a
low conditional threat for our western counties but CAMS are
favoring any afternoon storm development to stay in west
Tennessee.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Behind the shortwave, upper ridging slides back in with highs in the
mid to upper 80s on Friday. Some locations may even touch 90
degrees. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday
with showers and a couple storms ahead of it. Rain chances will
increase Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Behind
the front, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with highs in the
60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night.
Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday as high pressure
slides east of the area and weak southerly flow returns. While we
do have a couple of rain chances over the next seven days, amounts
will not do much to put a dent in the drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Clouds are thinning out
with the lowest cigs around 5 kft. Southerly winds will relax
below 10 kts overnight, becoming southwesterly and breezy after
15Z. Gusts between 15-25 kts can be expected through Wednesday
afternoon with passing mid to high level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  86  65  83 /   0   0   0  60
Clarksville    67  86  66  83 /   0   0  10  80
Crossville     57  82  60  81 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       62  85  63  84 /   0   0   0  50
Cookeville     60  83  62  80 /   0   0   0  40
Jamestown      59  83  60  81 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   61  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  40
Murfreesboro   62  86  63  84 /   0   0   0  50
Waverly        66  86  67  83 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett