FXUS64 KOHX 152326 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger this afternoon due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee's weather today, both at the surface and aloft. So we'll enjoy one more day of this stable and relatively dry air mass before the next active weather system brings some much-needed (but not nearly enough) rainfall to the mid state. A weak surface boundary currently situated to the northwest of Middle Tennessee will ease its way into the region later tonight and Thursday morning, so we can expect some late night and early morning showers. Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, although not as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave looks to push into Land-between-the-Lakes shortly after 00Z Thursday evening, and a convective cluster may accompany the shortwave. The HRRR has at times shown some storms affecting northwest portions of Middle Tennessee during the evening, hence the marginal risk from the SPC. While we cannot completely rule out a wind and hail threat, the risk of severe storms is very low during the early evening. And even that threat will diminish considerably as we lose our daytime heating. QPF values for tomorrow and tomorrow night remain underwhelming; most locations can expect no more than 1/4", although a few spots could see up to 1/2". Either way, it's not nearly enough to make up the growing rainfall deficit. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The atmospheric models continue to depict the bulk of the convective activity Saturday and Saturday evening as post-frontal, so that's going to limit the severe potential. Current QPF values resulting from Saturday's cold front are close to 1/2" area-wide, which will certainly be welcome, but won't do much to alleviate our drought conditions. The primary impact from Saturday's cold front will be the significant drop in temperatures on the other side. Indeed, high temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 60s most areas, and Monday morning's low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s most areas. After that, look for a gradual warming trend throughout next week, with no appreciable rain chances until Thursday night or Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours. A batch of showers with borderline MVFR cigs will move in near daybreak ahead of a of front that may bring additional showers and storms to all terminals Thursday afternoon. High-res models are in disagreement at this time with thunderstorm coverage, so PROB30 groups have been added to the taf to capture this uncertainty. Outside of shower/storm activity, SSW winds will remain breezy overnight with sustained speeds around 10 kts. Speeds will increase after 15Z with gusts up to 25 kts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 81 61 88 / 0 70 40 20 Clarksville 66 79 61 88 / 30 80 40 20 Crossville 59 79 56 82 / 0 60 60 10 Columbia 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Cookeville 61 79 59 83 / 0 70 50 10 Jamestown 59 79 56 82 / 0 70 50 10 Lawrenceburg 62 82 60 86 / 0 60 40 10 Murfreesboro 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Waverly 65 79 61 88 / 20 80 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett