FXUS64 KOHX 141548
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1048 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- There is an enhanced fire danger on Wednesday due to dry fuels,
  low RH values and gusty winds.

- Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday.

- There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and
  Thursday evening, and again this weekend. No severe weather is
  anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Middle Tennessee finds itself under the influence of an early-
season Bermuda High pattern today, and this will continue through
tomorrow. There will be an elevated fire danger on Wednesday owing
to dry fuels, afternoon RH values bottoming out in the 30-35%
range most areas, and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A quasi-stationary surface boundary currently is situated to our
northwest, and this will eventually bring rain and storm chances
to the region on Thursday and Thursday evening. We can expect some
instability with this environment, especially over northwest
portions of the mid state, but the risk of any severe storms is
very low, and, unfortunately, QPF values don't bring much hope
that our burgeoning drought conditions will abate. Indeed, the
frontal boundary will dry out considerably as it comes through
Middle Tennessee, and so expected rainfall totals taper off from
northwest to southeast. A stronger cold front is poised to sweep
across the region on Saturday and Saturday evening. Again, QPF
values won't move the needle much regarding the drought. In fact,
the pre-frontal air mass will be so dry that the bulk of the
convection that develops from this system will be post-frontal, so
that will definitely limit the severe potential. However,
temperatures behind the fropa will be considerably cooler, and
that will be primary impact from our weekend cold front. Low
temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning will range primarily from
the upper 30s to low 40s; a few of our higher elevation spots may
even wake up to a light frost.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. Winds will carry the biggest
impact with southwest gusts of 20-25 kts from 14-23Z today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  64  86  65 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    88  66  86  66 /   0   0   0  40
Crossville     82  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       86  62  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     82  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      83  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   84  60  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   86  61  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        87  66  86  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger