FXUS61 KOKX 150737
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
337 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High temperatures were increased at the CT and NY coasts thru
Thu.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly
each afternoon and evening.

3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to
below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Like yesterday, boosted temps across the NY and CT coasts abv
the NBM guidance, in some places by several degrees. Many of
these spots verified even warmer than the adjustments made
yesterday, but with onshore component flow, kept the fcst
withing the MOS guideposts.

Didn't alter the Fri numbers with an increasing likelihood of a
shrtwv trof passing thru not only reducing heights but
triggering shwrs and tstms.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the H3 jet residing over QC thru Thu, the main zone for
convective initiation and convergence should be N of the area
thru the period. Supporting this, model timeheights show a good
deal of synoptic subsidence over the area. Nevertheless, it
remains possible that shwrs and tstms could reach the cwa based
on sely storm motion, and the cold pool driven movement and
redevelopment, and potential outflow boundaries.

One feature to watch which could alter this setup today is the
MCS near Lake Erie. It is modeled to track N of the area and
dissipate today, but if this feature ends up further S it could
end up being a trigger locally.

For Fri, will still be watching the potential passage of shrtwv
trof during the day. This could spark a round of svr if daytime
timing is realized. The feature is still invof CO/NE so
confidence in the exact timing is low attm.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region
during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference,
consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers
will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold
front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below
normal Sunday night through Tuesday. The AI-GFS has H85 temps
around -12C at 12Z Tue.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period
As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate
New York daytime Wednesday, a prefrontal trough will extend
southward into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Mainly VFR overnight, though cannot rule out brief vsby restriction
right around sunrise especially E of the NYC metros. Continued VFR
through much of the day today, with chance of showers/tstms and
brief MFR/IFR cond with the prefrontal trough late today NW of the
NYC metros, and spreading SE to all terminals into this evening.

Light/vrb or S-SW flow overnight should become SW 10-15 kt inland
and S along the coast, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros
north/west. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu.

LLWS possible late this evening after any showers/tstms pass, with
WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected attm.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: Fog with IFR vsby possible at KGON/KISP/KBDR,
otherwise VFR as showers/tstms end.

Thursday and Thursday night: Any early morning IFR cond should
improve quickly to VFR.

Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the
afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. SW-W winds G20kt
in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. A
strong frontal sys will increase winds and waves by late in the
day Sun, with SCA cond likely by Sun ngt. The SCA winds and
waves are modeled to continue thru Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002.
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$