FXUS61 KOKX 151206 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 806 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures were increased at the CT and NY coasts thru Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon and evening. 3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Like yesterday, boosted temps across the NY and CT coasts abv the NBM guidance, in some places by several degrees. Many of these spots verified even warmer than the adjustments made yesterday, but with onshore component flow, kept the fcst withing the MOS guideposts. Didn't alter the Fri numbers with an increasing likelihood of a shrtwv trof passing thru not only reducing heights but triggering shwrs and tstms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... With the H3 jet residing over QC thru Thu, the main zone for convective initiation and convergence should be N of the area thru the period. Supporting this, model timeheights show a good deal of synoptic subsidence over the area. Nevertheless, it remains possible that shwrs and tstms could reach the cwa based on sely storm motion, and the cold pool driven movement and redevelopment, and potential outflow boundaries. One feature to watch which could alter this setup today is the MCS near Lake Erie. It is modeled to track N of the area and dissipate today, but if this feature ends up further S it could end up being a trigger locally. For Fri, will still be watching the potential passage of shrtwv trof during the day. This could spark a round of svr if daytime timing is realized. The feature is still invof CO/NE so confidence in the exact timing is low attm. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. The AI-GFS has H85 temps around -12C at 12Z Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this afternoon and evening. VFR through much of the day today, with chance of showers/tstms and brief MVFR/IFR cond with the prefrontal trough late today NW of the NYC metros, and spreading SE to all terminals into this evening. Timing uncertain and may need to be pushed forward into tonight. Light SW flow should become SW 10-15 kt inland and S along the coast by afternoon, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west and with the sea breeze at KJFK/KISP. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. LLWS possible late this evening after any showers/tstms pass, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. Fog with IFR cond also possible late tonight at KGON/KBDR/KISP, and MVFR cond at the NYC metros. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Chances for showers/tstms tonight may occur a couple of hrs later than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: Any early morning MVFR/IFR cond should improve quickly to VFR by 13Z. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. A strong frontal sys will increase winds and waves by late in the day Sun, with SCA cond likely by Sun ngt. The SCA winds and waves are modeled to continue thru Mon. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... MARINE...