FXUS66 KOTX 151145 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 445 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Rain has increased in across Idaho and eastern third of WA and ceilings have started to trend down. HREF has a 70% chance for MVFR cigs and vis at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, and KPUW and 30% chance at KLWS. Snow levels will lower with the front and increasing precipitation intensities with 30-40% chance for rain/snow mix at KPUW, KGEG, KCOE and very low chances for any accumulations with temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front will swift return to VFR skies. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 29 54 32 / 80 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 28 49 29 52 30 / 90 40 40 10 0 0 Pullman 45 29 45 30 50 31 / 100 40 40 0 10 0 Lewiston 50 34 51 32 55 33 / 100 40 20 0 0 0 Colville 51 27 55 27 58 28 / 60 30 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 29 46 29 50 30 / 90 60 70 10 20 0 Kellogg 42 27 43 27 47 28 / 100 60 80 20 30 0 Moses Lake 55 30 59 31 60 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 33 55 34 60 38 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$