FXUS63 KPAH 151141 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values again today. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will move into the area Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon and evening, and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will again bring to the region very warm and mainly dry today into tonight. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm in the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated (10-20%). As temperatures at 850mb rise to 16-18C (around the 95th percentile), high temperatures Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, which will again approach or break record high values. Late tonight into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. These showers and storms will be in a decaying mode as they move through the region Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon and evening, an upper- level jet max will pass over the region, which will act to potentially trigger new convection. A few storms reaching strong or severe levels is not out of the question late on Thursday, and SPC has maintained a marginal risk over the region in its latest Day 2 Outlook. If any severe storms develop, marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the main threat. Given the uncertainty regarding recovery following the morning precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding the severe threat. Rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower from yesterday's forecast, with most areas now progged to see about 0.25-0.50" by late Thursday evening. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations in west Kentucky may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another chance (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms, in the form of a strongly forced line of storms. These storms could pose a severe risk, especially in southwest IN, where SPC has introduced a slight risk for this time. If severe storms do form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. More beneficial rains are also forecast, with another 0.25-0.50" of rain forecast Saturday into Sunday. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday, followed by a warm up into the middle to upper 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The first 12-15 hours of the forecast period as the region will remain under breezy S to SW flow, with winds sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts through this afternoon. Cloud bases will be VFR, with SCT diurnal CU around 4-6kft and mid and high cirrus around 15-25kft. Tonight, showers with isolated thunder will develop west of the region and move into the area between roughly 4-10z Thursday from west to east. Started with FM groups of SHRA with PROB30 groups for TSRA impacts for now. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record high temperatures for today: PAH: 88 (1977) EVV: 86 (2024) CGI: 87 (1992) POF: 88 (1936) MDH: 87 (2024) && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS CLIMATE...DWS