FXUS61 KPBZ 150529 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 129 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion has been updated for 00Z TAF issuance. Otherwise no changes to the forecast or discussion since this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday. 2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather today. 3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70. Storm chances to continue Thursday as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s. Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend. Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so. PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees. Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. KEY MESSAGE 2... We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again. Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be ruled out with an overperforming strong storm. Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight. These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so. By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night. Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods currently have a decent potential for development of severe storms. Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR prevails to begin the TAF period and much of the forecast is expected to be VFR as well. This will possibly be broken by several chances for showers and storms. The first of which largely occurs between 10-14z when the ongoing line of storms in Michigan is expected to encroach upon the region. By the time it gets here, it will likely be a broken line of dying showers and may fracture further before even making it to BVI or anywhere further south. These showers could bring MVFR restrictions in VIS to affected ports and lowering chances for MVFR CIGs at FKL and DUJ which have seen CIG forecasts improve this cycle. These showers have been included as TEMPOs for FKL/DUJ, PROB30s as far south as HLG/AGC/LBE and are not mentioned further south. After these early showers decay, widespread VFR and dry weather returns until the afternoon, when storms begin to spark again. The outlook for tomorrow afternoon remains similar to yesterday, with a wide range of timing and coverage solutions at play. Currently storms are favored largely north of I-70 this afternoon and evening, possibly beginning again by early afternoon closer to I-80 first. Most model solutions then bring additional lines of storms across the region (highest chances again north of I-70) after sunset. Storm coverage may be more limited in the afternoon before becoming more widespread in the evening, but both timeframes look to support hail and damaging wind gust threats. Both of these possible storm timings have been included as PROB30 groups for affected ports trying to forecast the best time. This remains rather difficult though, with storm timing and location being largely dependent on the existence and placement of boundaries tomorrow morning from ongoing convection tonight. MGW may find it self far enough south to miss out on all of this activity and could be VFR and dry through the entire TAF period. ZZV could also luck out but has a higher chance than MGW to see storms tomorrow evening. Again, large portions of the forecast period will be VFR but instances of restrictions in showers and storms are possible mainly north near sunrise and tomorrow afternoon and then a little more widespread by evening time. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 14th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014) Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006) Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899) DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014) Wednesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK AVIATION...Cermak/AK