FXUS61 KPHI 150640 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 240 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the heat forecast and showers/thunderstorm forecast for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. 2. Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. For today, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk remains in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining outflow boundaries. An MCS is currently moving through over the Great Lakes and should fizzle later this morning near the Appalachian region. Similar to yesterday, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon to our west and push toward the area in the late afternoon/early evening. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. MLCAPE Values in the northern third of our region should be around 1000-1500 J/kg though with only 20-30 kt of bulk shear. Thinking the timing may not line up perfectly with forcing coming in a bit later closer to sunset as instability is waning, which will be a limiting factor with today's severe threat. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on today's threat is low. Thinking the main area to watch over the early evening will be near and north of I-78. In terms of timing with the thunderstorms, it does look to come in a bit later, which as mentioned above will limit the severe threat some. Looking at a window from about 6 PM to Midnight across the northern Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern NJ. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will likely see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected for today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Tomorrow's highs could be a touch cooler with some cloud cover in place. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next two days. See Climate Section to see the daily records for today and tomorrow. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. Rain chances are in the forecast north/west of the I-95 corridor for this evening and Thursday Night, but rainfall amounts are minimal. Showers move through on Friday region-wide but QPF is only a few hundredths. More widespread and wetting rain (0.10" or greater) could come on Sunday. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture. This will likely hinder the fire weather concerns as min RHs should be above 30%. Winds will generally be light as well, serving as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Cannot rule out some patchy fog (10-15% chance) but not high enough to include in any TAF site. Southwest winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Late day/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near and north of I-78 which could affect KABE/KRDG (15-25% chance). Bulk of the convection should stay to the north though. I-95 and South Jersey terminals should be well south of any showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt in the morning, increasing to around 10-15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts around 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Wednesday Night...VFR. Showers near KABE/KRDG until about 03z-04z which could result in some restrictions. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday....VFR. No significant weather. Thursday Night through Friday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out brief periods of restrictions with any showers moving through (15-30% chance). Friday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather. Saturday Night through Sunday...Primarily VFR. Some restrictions possible (30-50%) with periods of showers moving through. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Winds out of the southwest around 10-20 kt with 2 to 4 foot seas. Outlook... Thursday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines expected. Sunday...SCA conditions possible (30-50%) as winds out of the west/southwest near 25 kt and seas nearing 5 feet. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Record highs on Tuesday April 14 were tied at Wilmington and Georgetown today, with a record high set in Atlantic City. No record warmest lows were set on Tuesday. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich