FXUS65 KPIH 141745 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1145 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quieter Weather Today: Expect a temporary break in widespread weather today, though isolated showers persist in the Eastern Highlands. - High-Impact Wednesday: A potent storm system brings widespread moisture and high winds, with gusts of 40–45 mph likely across the Snake Plain. - Significant Late-Week Cold: Temperatures plummet Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday will be notably cold with highs in the 30s and 40s and light snow possible on valley floors. - Hard Freeze Likely: Widespread lows in the 20s are expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Due to the early start of the growing season, Freeze Watches/Warnings may be issued to protect vulnerable crops. - Rapid Weekend Recovery: Conditions dry out by Saturday with a significant warming trend returning temperatures to the 60s by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A brief reprieve in widespread activity arrives today as the region sits between weather systems. While most of the area will remain dry, high-resolution guidance suggests a few lingering, isolated showers remain possible across the Eastern Highlands throughout the afternoon. This window of relative quiet will be short-lived; a robust weather system is expected to push into the Central Mountains early Wednesday morning, with precipitation chances increasing steadily from west to east as the day progresses. This midweek system appears to be a significant moisture producer for all of Eastern Idaho. Beyond the precipitation, Wednesday is slated to be the windiest day of the week—particularly for the upper Snake River Plain—with gusts of 40–45 mph likely requiring a Wind Advisory in future forecast packages. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, dropping snow levels rapidly to all valley floors. A much colder air mass will settle in behind the front, driving Thursday's highs into the upper 30s and low 40s—a sharp 15-degree drop from Wednesday. Recent model trends suggest Thursday and Friday may be even chillier than previously anticipated. These plummeting temperatures, combined with persistent gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will create a significant raw chill. Consequently, light snow reaching valley floors is increasingly likely starting Thursday morning. While valley accumulations are expected to be minor (an inch or less), more impactful snow is forecast for the higher terrain, where winter weather headlines may be necessary. The secondary, and perhaps more significant, impact of this cold air mass involves local agriculture. Widespread sub- freezing temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday mornings, with lows dropping into the 20s across primary growing regions and the teens elsewhere. Although it is early in the season for frost/freeze products, the unseasonably warm winter has accelerated plant growth, making it necessary to issue Freeze Watches or Warnings to protect vulnerable crops. Lingering mountain precipitation will persist into Friday, though the region will slowly dry out over the course of the day. Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates the cold upper-level trough will begin to exit the region. As high pressure builds by Saturday, temperatures will trend back toward seasonal normals before climbing well above normal by Sunday, with 60s likely returning to valley locations. Looking into next week, models suggest another disturbance may approach the Pacific Northwest, with moisture potentially returning as early as Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Widespread lower clouds continue to decrease, although we are pockets of low and mid clouds moving through central and eastern Idaho. We may be in and out of MVFR/IFR conditions for the lower clouds for a little while this afternoon. We will see low clouds returning early to mid morning Wednesday, as the next storm arrives. We should stay VFR or flirt with high end MVFR at PIH, IDA, and BYI as any precipitation and lower FR weather arriving in the afternoon. At DIJ, we are expecting VCSH with the same ceiling issues during that period. We do expect a mix of rain and snow to impact SUN not too long after sunrise and continue through the rest of the day, with a likely full switchover during the afternoon. We are expecting MVFR to IFR conditions impacting the airport once the precipitation arrives. The other concern will be increasing wind with gusts of 15-30kts tomorrow, strongest at PIH and especially IDA. This will be outside of any showers, storms, or bands of precipitation that form. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...Keyes