FXUS65 KPSR 150515 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1015 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry conditions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley - Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead. This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system, providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to the 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also be possible, particularly across southeast California and the Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80- 85 degree range. Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S. over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under clear skies. Confidence is very good that winds in the Phoenix area will obtain an easterly component overnight before shifting back to W/SW early afternoon. Winds across SE California will oscillate generally between S/SE during the day, and W/NW overnight. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman