FXUS61 KRLX 150533 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Also the complex of storms racing from east-central Ohio eastward into northern WV and southwestern Pennsylvania earlier have dissipated. 751 PM update... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Also modified shower and storm chances this evening based on current radar trends. Currently monitoring a complex of storms racing across western Ohio this evening that may skirt by our far northwestern zones late tonight. The loss of daytime heating will yield a weakening trend for these storms over the next few hours, so activity may not be too impressive as they reach the Ohio River Valley. 149 PM update... A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded south to include the Metro Valley for this afternoon and evening. A slight risk now encompasses a portion of Perry County. Minor adjustments have been made to timing for Thursday night and Saturday night precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail. 2.) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible mid-week. 3.) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, afternoon relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range, breezy conditions and antecedent dry dead fuels. 4.) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing a period of beneficial rain followed by much cooler temperatures and potential frost by Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep-layer shear is increasing to modest levels near 35KT this afternoon as a weak shortwave impulse traverses the periphery of the southeastern ridge. While capping remains a concern near H700, diurnal heating is expected to erode inhibition across the north. Mixed-layer CAPE values are forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg, supportive of multicell clusters. Given steep low-level lapse rates and a substantially dry sub-cloud layer with surface-to-H500 dewpoint depressions, marginally severe downburst winds are the primary threat, though semi-discrete cells could produce isolated large hail. The greatest risk area extends from the northern border south to the Metro Valley. Convection will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. KEY MESSAGE 2... An amplified long-wave pattern remains established with a strong 590dam ridge anchored over the Gulf and Florida. This will maintain an unseasonably warm airmass across the region through Saturday. High temperatures will average in the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Record highs are specifically challenged Wednesday and again Friday/Saturday when H850 temperatures peak between 14C and 16C, supporting surface values near 90. Should stay mainly dry Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, a shortwave Thursday could bring some precipitation chances, but probably tough sledding for anything to survive when encountering the ridge and associated substantially dry low levels. Maintained what are probably a little optimistic central guidance PoPs. KEY MESSAGE 3... Fire danger remains enhanced through the week as drought conditions worsen with the lack of widespread rainfall. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will bottom out in the 20s and 30s through Saturday (minus today). Combined with daily southwest gusts of 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels, rapid fire spread in leaf litter and dead grasses is possible. This will be somewhat mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S.. A strong cold front is timed to cross the area Saturday night, with PoPs peaking in the 50-60 percent range. While QPF has looked lean in previous runs, this system offers the best chance for meaningful rain in the next 7 days. Strong cold advection follows, with H850 temperatures dropping significantly by Sunday night. Highs will retreat to the 60s for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential by Monday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a drier day in store. South to southwest surface flow will hover around 5 kts during the overnight and early morning hours, before becoming breezy out of the southwest around 15 to 20kts once more during the day. Surface flow will then become light south to southwest again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft may induce low level wind shear during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, before mixing through to light to moderate southwest today. Flow aloft will become moderate southwest again tonight, which may eventually induce low level wind shear again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear may or may not occur, or its nocturnal timing may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday. && .Climate... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Saturday with daytime highs challenged at least Wednesday and Saturday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures (Observed / Record Highs Tue) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tue, 4/14 | Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRW | 84 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 81 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 83 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 77 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------- Sat, 4/18 | --------------------- CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) | HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) | CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) | PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) | BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) | EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...JP/TRM