FXUS61 KRLX 150754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severer thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening, in response to faster timing with a system approaching from the west. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Record to near-record heat will persist through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and isolated 90s possible today and Saturday. - 2) Elevated fire danger continues through the week due to anomalous heat, minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 30s, breezy conditions, and antecedent dry dead fuels with only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain. - 3) Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily in interior southeast Ohio. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a system moves through. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts or hail in interior southeast Ohio this afternoon and evening, and across the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. - 4) A strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will end the heatwave, bringing afternoon and evening showers and strong storms evolving into a period of beneficial nighttime rain. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, and minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge builds slightly today, and then rebuilds Friday behind a Thursday/Thursday night system. This will maintain the summer-like weather, with record to near- record heat through the balance of the week, along with unseasonably mild nights. The hottest afternoons are expected today and Saturday, with the Thursday/Thursday night system in the next key message dampening highs a bit Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s for all but interior southeast Ohio through the weekend, and then in the 20s next Monday and Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak, flat mid/upper-level short wave troughs will somewhat focus low coverage showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. With a corridor of increased shear and instability to the north and west, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can become strong to Marginally severe across far northwest portions of the forecast area. The primary threat is damaging wind, given marginally adequate shear amid large temperature- dew point spreads. There is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough moves through with a weak surface reflection passing well north of the area. Amid faster timing, the trough is likely to get close enough to increase shear amid afternoon heating at least across the middle Ohio Valley, and a few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps hail there Thursday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the middle Ohio Valley for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift occurs this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday through Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection. The instability forecast will again need watched given the increased shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. Of note is the expansive Severe Weather Risk area depicted upstream over the middle of the Country by the Storm Prediction Center on Day 3, Friday, ranging as high as Enhanced. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to around 5 C below 0 give or take Sunday night, compared with the 15 C or so temperatures of the current early season heat wave. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low to mid 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, though the high un-strategically crosses overhead late Monday. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow around the exiting highs, and beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of rain and low afternoon relative humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a drier day in store. South to southwest surface flow will hover around 5 kts during the overnight and early morning hours, before becoming breezy out of the southwest around 15 to 20kts once more during the day. Surface flow will then become light south to southwest again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft may induce low level wind shear during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, before mixing through to light to moderate southwest today. Flow aloft will become moderate southwest again tonight, which may eventually induce low level wind shear again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear may or may not occur, or its nocturnal timing may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the week. However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday through Saturday night. && && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM