FXUS61 KRNK 152345 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation Update. Lowered the dewpoints to be more in line with the deeper mixing, otherwise no changes to the forecast. We set record high temperatures at 4 out of our 5 climate stations Wednesday. Record Event Report (RER) has been sent. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. 2. Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. 3. Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. High pressure over the southeast U.S. will start to drop southeast Thursday as an upper trough shifts into the lower Great Lakes. Even with this shift, temps will be warmer than normal and potentially close to record highs. Looking to stay above normal despite this shortwave moving across as the surface high stays over the southeast and keeps the flow out of the west/southwest into Saturday. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. With the shortwave Thu night into Friday appears models keep the probability of measurable rainfall greatest along and west of the Appalachian Divide, so areas east of the Alleghanys are likely to see light showers/sprinkles and any amount of rain will be less than a tenth of an inch at best. The front Sat night into Sunday will be more robust but even that will be stretched out in more a linear fashion and quick moving which will limit rainfall amounts to under a tenth of an inch for most, possibly up to a quarter inch in WV and far SW VA if any convection happens. Key Message 3: Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. Greater relief from the heat looks to come after the frontal passage, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The mountains, especially in southeast WV, will see low temperatures in the 30s once again. Probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees F or less between 35% to 45% for the southeast WV mountains Monday and Tuesday mornings. By midweek high pressure moves offshore with the flow turning more southwest again providing warmer than normal temperatures. Looking further out, teleconnection forecasts suggest pattern flip by the end of the month, with potential for much needed rainfall to close out April. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots... gusty during the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night- Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains before improving. The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through with a better chance of showers and potential for sub- VFR cigs/vsby, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. WInds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Some rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next couple of days: Wednesday: 4 of the 5 stations set record highs today. Temperatures thru 5PM: ROA/91, DAN/91, LYH/90, BCB/85, BLF/81. Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH/WP AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...AS/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH/PM