FXUS64 KSHV 150531
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on
   Wednesday into Thursday.

 - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday,
   delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps.

 - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday,
   followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a
surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a
steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and
Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with
this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being
said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous
models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the
coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for
areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north
of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe
storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will
be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we
can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either.

Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a
strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the
region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it
looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon.
This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall
to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms,
something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind
the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly
below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next
week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For the 15/00Z TAFs, widespread afternoon Cu will dissipate into
the evening hours, while OVC skies build in across our far
northwestern airspace, giving way to a mix of mid to high level
clouds which which will persist through much of the night. As
daybreak approaches, another round of MVFR CIGs will impact area
terminals, gradually lifting and breaking into the day tomorrow.
South winds will continue throughout at maximum sustained speeds
of 7 to 12 kts, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed until late Wednesday.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  67  87  67 /   0  20  10   0
MLU  88  65  89  66 /   0  10  20   0
DEQ  81  61  82  62 /  40  70  20   0
TXK  85  67  86  67 /  10  60  20  10
ELD  85  63  86  64 /   0  30  30  10
TYR  83  67  85  67 /  30  50  10   0
GGG  85  66  86  66 /  10  40  10   0
LFK  86  67  87  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26