FXUS64 KSHV 150551 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions beneath an extensive cirrus shield will persist for at least a portion of the overnight hours to start the 15/06Z TAF period, but low MVFR cigs have recently developed over portions of SE/ECntrl TX and SW LA, and will quickly spread NNE into the region over the next several hours, and encompass much of the region by daybreak Wednesday. These cigs will slowly lift by mid to late morning, returning to VFR by midday/early afternoon. However, cu cigs should linger through much of the afternoon before eventually scattering out later in the day, and may linger even through the evening. Isolated to scattered convection may develop late this afternoon over portions of NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, but should remain N and W of the TYR/TXK terminals through the end of the TAF period. However, a larger convection complex should develop late this afternoon/evening over Cntrl/Ern OK, and shift ESE into portions of extreme SE OK and Wrn AR late this evening, and may affect TXK by or after 06Z Thursday as it gradually weakens. Should also see low MVFR/possibly IFR cigs develop by the end of the TAF period over SE TX, and quickly spread N into the region through daybreak Thursday. S winds 5-11kts overnight will increase to 11-16kts with gusts to 25kts after 15Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 MLU 88 65 89 66 / 0 10 20 0 DEQ 81 61 82 62 / 40 70 20 0 TXK 85 67 86 67 / 10 60 20 10 ELD 85 63 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 83 67 85 67 / 30 50 10 0 GGG 85 66 86 66 / 10 40 10 0 LFK 86 67 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15