FXUS64 KSHV 151144 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low MVFR and even some IFR cigs have overspread Lower E TX/much of N LA and Srn AR this morning, and should fill in elsewhere by 14Z, but should slowly lift by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions returning by midday/early afternoon beneath an extensive cu field. The cigs may begin to scatter out by mid to late afternoon, but still linger even through the evening. Scattered convection may move should move into portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR by mid to late evening, and gradually weaken as it does so, but could hold together long enough to reach TXK by 06Z Thursday, while weakening as it approaches ELD around 09Z. Have added VCTS/VCSH respectively for these terminals, with any remaining convection diminishing/exiting the region by or shortly after 12Z. Farther S, low MVFR cigs should again redevelop over Deep E TX by 06Z, and quickly spread N across much of the region overnight. It's possible that the potential convection across portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR later tonight could inhibit the Nwd progress of these cigs or delay their development across this area prior to daybreak. Regardless, these cigs should again lift/return to VFR by late morning/midday once again. S winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 MLU 88 65 89 66 / 0 10 20 0 DEQ 81 61 82 62 / 40 70 20 0 TXK 85 67 86 67 / 10 60 20 10 ELD 85 63 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 83 67 85 67 / 30 50 10 0 GGG 85 66 86 66 / 10 40 10 0 LFK 86 67 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15