FXUS64 KSJT 150509 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening.. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off a dryline...in the eastern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend this afternoon. These storms have the potential for severe weather as they move northeast and east into the evening. A mesoscale discussion has been issued by SPC that includes portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett county for an 80 percent chance of a watch. Instability is high at 3000 J/KG. Very large hail of 2-3 inch diameter and severe winds possible along with isolated tornadoes. Later tonight after midnight, some of the shortterm convective models also have a second group of showers and thunderstorms, probably with an upper level disturbance. These storms become isolated by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection continues across portions of the Edwards Plateau early this morning and may approach the KJCT terminal over the next few hours. Have continued the PROB30 down there for now, but have kept the remainder of the terminals dry for now. Given the convection to the south and the extensive high cloudiness, have also pushed back the onset of low clouds (MVFR) cigs across the rest of the terminals by a few hours, although still think most of them will eventually see these MVFR cigs by near or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, CAMs continue to be widely separated in if/when convection redevelops this afternoon. Given the very large uncertainty, will leave any mention of convection out of the forecast for the afternoon hours for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 65 88 / 10 10 10 10 Junction 61 87 61 88 / 10 10 0 10 Brownwood 62 86 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 Sweetwater 62 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 Brady 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07