FXUS64 KSJT 141914
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
214 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat
  for severe storms each day.

- A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances
  and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening..

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop off a dryline...in the eastern Permian Basin south to the
Big Bend this afternoon. These storms have the potential for severe
weather as they move northeast and east into the evening. A
mesoscale discussion has been issued by SPC that includes portions
of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett county for an 80
percent chance of a watch. Instability is high at 3000 J/KG. Very
large hail of 2-3 inch diameter and severe winds possible along
with isolated tornadoes.

Later tonight after midnight, some of the shortterm convective
models also have a second group of showers and thunderstorms,
probably with an upper level disturbance. These storms become
isolated by Wednesday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at
20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or
upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more
widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight
Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with
a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with
any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days,
with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave
energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall,
temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move
through the northern and central plains and then into the Great
Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central
Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning
Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be
north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to
support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the
front as it moves through.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next
week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on
Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70
Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation
chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves
through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest
in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals
tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns
along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR
stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals.
IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT,
but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  84  62  87 /  50  30  10   0
San Angelo  63  84  61  87 /  40  30  10  10
Junction    62  79  60  86 /  40  40  10  10
Brownwood   64  80  62  86 /  50  50  20   0
Sweetwater  65  86  61  88 /  50  20   0   0
Ozona       63  82  61  84 /  50  30  20  10
Brady       64  79  62  84 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04