FXUS64 KSJT 141755
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat
  for severe storms each day.

- A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances
  and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift
east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho
Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again
though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there
are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will
be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a
weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this
afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it
is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although
most of them show considerably less convection than it looked
like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs
(60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with
almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will
decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area.

Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can
develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail
possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and
this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Expect a repeat for Wednesday as a lazy dryline will fire off a few
to isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
hours. The combination of moderate/strong instability and good deep
layer shear will result in a few severe storms. Looks like mainly
quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level
ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a
sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains
Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain
north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into
Friday night. A cold front moves south across the area Saturday
with cooler and dry weather this weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep
up with the latest weather information as the month of April is
severe weather season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest
in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals
tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns
along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR
stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals.
IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT,
but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  65  84  62 /  20  50  30  10
San Angelo  81  63  84  61 /  30  40  30  10
Junction    83  62  79  60 /  20  40  40  10
Brownwood   81  64  80  62 /  20  50  50  20
Sweetwater  83  65  86  61 /  40  50  20   0
Ozona       78  63  82  61 /  50  50  30  20
Brady       81  64  79  62 /  20  50  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04