FXUS64 KSJT 152257 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 557 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in our area this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing early this afternoon over southeastern Throckmorton County. High resolution models have been consistently developing isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon along the dryline, roughly along and east of an Abilene to Ozona line. The one missing component to aid in convection is upper level support. However, should these storms develop, they will have 2500 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE, and 45 to 60 knots of deep layer shear as well. So, any storms that develop will have the chance to increase to severe levels, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expect storms to continue into the evening hours, ending gradually after sunset as instability wanes. Otherwise, expect another warm night with lows mainly in the lower 60s. For Thursday, temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. With even less support for convection tomorrow, will continue the dry forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 One more unseasonably warm day is expected on Friday before cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend and early next week behind a cold front. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. The dryline is forecast to advance east, just west of our forecast area, by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the dryline. A strong cap will be present, so confidence remains low that we will see any convection along the dryline. If a few storms do develop, they may move into our western counties during the evening hours. For now, PoPs were kept on the low side (around 20%), but will continue to monitor. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late Friday into Saturday morning, sending a cold front south into West Central Texas Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances. Rain amounts look to remain fairly light (generally under 0.25 inches) as any showers and thunderstorms should move through fairly quickly. Gusty north winds will filter in behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. An upper level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will approach the area on Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover. Cool temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned disturbance approaches, rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday. Generally low end (20-30%) rain chances are forecast. The continued extensive cloud cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will keep highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday. A steady warm up is then anticipated into the middle of next week with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and highs on Wednesday back into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 TSRA will be possible near the KSJT terminal through around 02-03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening. MVFR stratus will move back into the southern and central areas overnight and into the morning hours. Cigs should scatter out during the afternoon with VFR conditions returning. Southerly winds will be gusty during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...42