FXUS64 KSJT 141816 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Another day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. A dryline will again shift east to near the western border of the Big Country and Concho Valley, with CAPE values of 3000+ ahead of the dryline. Again though, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there are questions on just where and how widespread any convection will be. As we have talked about the last few days, it looks like a weak shortwave may approach the Southern Plains later this afternoon and evening as well, although additional support from it is still uncertain as well. CAMs are all over the place, although most of them show considerably less convection than it looked like a few days ago. With that said, the high model blend POPs (60-80%) just seems overdone for this afternoon and evening with almost none of the CAMs showing convection this widespread. Will decrease POPs back to something in the 30-50% range for most area. Given the instability and much like Monday, any storm that can develop will likely become severe with large to very large hail possible. Low level jet increases to 35-45kts this evening and this may keep any storm alive into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although we will likely cap rain chances at 20% with this activity without much in the way of forcing, or upper level support in our area. There is a better chance of more widespread coverage to our north, and in fact there is a Slight Risk for severe weather north of Interstate 20 in our area, with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the CWA. The main concerns with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday and Friday look to be quieter than the past few days, with weaker upper level, and only weak upper level shortwave energy moving through. In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s. Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper level trough will move through the northern and central plains and then into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move into west-central Texas after midnight, moving south of I-10 by mid morning Saturday. Although upper level support for convection will be north of our area, the lift along the cold front may be enough to support a line of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front as it moves through. Much cooler temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. After highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday, we are expecting highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday through Monday. Could see additional precipitation chances by next Monday as upper level shortwave energy moves through and interacts with warm air advection starting back up. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 MVFR stratus will dissipate this afternoon, holding on the longest in southern terminals, including KSOA and KJCT until mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may affect the terminals tonight, mainly after 00Z/Wednesday. IFR stratus otherwise returns along to KSOA and KJCT toward or just after midnight, with MVFR stratus returning late tonight across the rest of the terminals. IFR/MVFR stratus scatters out mid/late morning at KABI and KSJT, but may persist into early afternoon for southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 84 62 87 / 50 30 10 0 San Angelo 63 84 61 87 / 40 30 10 10 Junction 62 79 60 86 / 40 40 10 10 Brownwood 64 80 62 86 / 50 50 20 0 Sweetwater 65 86 61 88 / 50 20 0 0 Ozona 63 82 61 84 / 50 30 20 10 Brady 64 79 62 84 / 50 40 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04