FXUS64 KSJT 150605 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 105 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will persist into this afternoon, with a threat for severe storms each day. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update POPs ahead of it as needed this morning. For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will become established and slide east to near the western borders of the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and increased later today if storms start to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection continues across portions of the Edwards Plateau early this morning and may approach the KJCT terminal over the next few hours. Have continued the PROB30 down there for now, but have kept the remainder of the terminals dry for now. Given the convection to the south and the extensive high cloudiness, have also pushed back the onset of low clouds (MVFR) cigs across the rest of the terminals by a few hours, although still think most of them will eventually see these MVFR cigs by near or shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, CAMs continue to be widely separated in if/when convection redevelops this afternoon. Given the very large uncertainty, will leave any mention of convection out of the forecast for the afternoon hours for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 85 63 88 66 / 40 10 10 10 San Angelo 86 62 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 Junction 81 61 87 61 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 80 62 86 64 / 40 10 10 10 Sweetwater 87 62 90 66 / 30 0 10 10 Ozona 83 62 85 64 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 80 62 85 64 / 50 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07