FXUS62 KTAE 170554 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 154 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 147 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected on Friday and Saturday mornings over the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and far Southwest Georgia. If you encounter fog while driving, then slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Fire concerns will increase on Sunday, becoming critical on Monday in the warm, dry, windy conditions following passage of a mostly dry cold front. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over the open waters of the northeast Gulf from Sunday through at least Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong mid-level high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will push further south through tomorrow as a shortwave trough moves eastward through the Great Lakes region. Some cumulus clouds have tried to get going near the Panhandle coast today, but with PWATs less than 0.8", conditions will remain rainless areawide this afternoon and Friday. Biggest concern for the short term period is patchy to widespread fog on Friday morning, primarily in the FL Panhandle and parts of SE AL, where a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be necessary overnight tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fog is again probable overnight Friday into Saturday morning in the western parts of our CWA. Saturday will then be close to a repeat of Friday, with dry conditions, light southerly to southwesterly winds, and temperatures generally in the upper 80s. A cold front attached to a longwave trough currently over the western U.S. will push through the area Sunday afternoon. Dew points increase into the 60s on Saturday night as moisture comes in ahead of the front, but a lack of adequate forcing means rainfall will be minimal. Highest rain chances are about 30%, mostly in SE AL and the inland FL Panhandle. A few drops are possible throughout the area, but accumulations are not expected. The drought continues. Winds will become northerly as the front passes and pick up to around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Cloud cover on Sunday will keep high temperatures lower, peaking in the mid to upper 70s for the western half of the area, and the low to mid 80s in the FL Big Bend and south central GA. After the front clears the area late Sunday, dew points will plummet into the 30s and possibly even upper 20s on Monday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than they've been this week, but still reach the upper 70s across the area, producing RH values as low as 20%. Along with gusty winds and the ongoing drought, dangerous fire conditions will be a concern on Monday. Dew points already start to rise again on Tuesday, and with winds weakening as well, fire concerns will retreat back to more common levels of late. Highs will be back into the low 80s by Wednesday and remain there through the end of the period, with no rainfall expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Prevailing VFR conds expected for much of this TAF period. The main exceptions are at ECP/TLH thru the morning hrs when fog/low stratus develops in and around those terminals. Highest confidence in most degraded flt restrictions is at ECP (LIFR-VLIFR). An aftn seabreeze affects the FL sites with a southerly wind approaching 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A bubble of high pressure will remain anchored over the northeast Gulf through Saturday evening, supporting variable winds with dominant nearshore afternoon seabreezes. Then a cold front will quickly sweep across the waters during the day on Sunday, followed at first by strong northerly winds. Strong breezes will clock around easterly by Tuesday, as high pressure passes by to the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A persistently warm and dry air mass will continue through Saturday, with prominent afternoon seabreezes spreading inland from the coast. Dense morning fog is expected Friday and Saturday mornings over Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and far southwest Georgia districts. A critical fire weather pattern will shape up on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will sweep across the region on Sunday. If the front brings any rain, it will be light and come up short of a quarter-inch wetting rain. Strong, gusty north winds will fill in behind the front on Sunday afternoon. By Monday, a very dry air mass will encompass the entire region, as gusty northeast winds peak in strength. On Monday especially, any new fire starts will have potential to spread rapidly in the dry wind. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next 7 days. Any rain with the cold front on Sunday will by a hydrologically insignificant quarter-inch or less. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 88 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 64 81 66 78 / 0 0 0 20 Dothan 59 86 60 74 / 0 0 0 20 Albany 60 88 62 76 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 59 91 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 57 89 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 78 67 78 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner