FXUS62 KTAE 141709 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 109 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No updates were needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A large upper level ridge will prevail over the southeast US through the remainder of the week. Under this ridge, surface high pressure will remain dominant with high temperatures well above normal and in the upper 80s. It wouldn't be surprising for some locations to touch the 90s by the upcoming weekend. With the ridge in control, no rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week and potentially into the weekend. Fire concerns will also stay elevated given the dry conditions in place and expected forecast. The ridge will likely begin to break down some late in the weekend and into early next week as a frontal system approaches. However, rainfall amounts will be very small, if any, from this frontal system. The main concerns with this system will be the influx of drier air and potential increase in fire weather concerns given elevated post-frontal winds. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception of brief MVFR/IFR fog possible tonight, with most being limited to ECP/DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A surface high extending from the western Atlantic will keep generally light to gentle southeasterly winds over the waters for the next several days. Seabreezes can be expected to push just inland during the afternoon hours. Later this week, the High will settle a little further south, shifting our winds more southerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week as drought conditions will continue and/or worsen. Transport winds will generally be southerly; swinging from southeasterly to southwesterly at around 5-10 mph. Expect afternoon seabreezes across Florida counties. Dispersions will be moderate, with higher dispersions expected by Wednesday lasting into the weekend. Given antecedent conditions and RHs dropping into the low 30% range most afternoons, expect some fire concerns each day. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...LF MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs