FXUS62 KTAE 151046 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the northeast Gulf dominates the upper level pattern into the weekend before it begins to break down in advance of several upper level troughs early next week. Ahead of these systems, very warm temperatures will prevail. Our warmest days of the period will be Friday and Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front on Sunday/Monday. High temperatures will likely approach 90 in many locations, especially those across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. The main forecast concerns through the next 7 days will be the continuation of a very dry pattern and increasing fire concerns, especially this weekend and early next week. While the frontal system will bring slightly cooler temperatures and a brief chance for rain, it will not be enough to temper fire danger. Much of the rain chances will be confined to southeast Alabama but even in these locations, forecast rain chances and rainfall amounts are quite low (less than 20% and only a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible). Given that this next front is highly likely to be a dry cold front, and the potential for relative humidities in the teens with 10 to 15 mph winds, we could see the potential for critical (also known as Red Flag) fire weather conditions during that time period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog is ongoing and bringing prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP. All other terminals remain in VFR and will remain that way through much of the day and evening. For ECP, fog is expected to lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. South winds will develop through the day at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. The next period of elevated marine concerns won't be until late Sunday and Monday as a cold front sweeps through area waters and brings northeasterly winds; potentially to cautionary/advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be higher today, primarily for the western half of the region across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 60 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>014-108-112-114. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs