FXUS64 KTSA 150530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

 - Severe storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of
   the rest of this week.

 - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially
   severe, is expected Friday into Saturday before cooler air
   arrives behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A warm and humid airmass will remain over the area through
Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through the day as an upper trough approaches from the
west. Severe storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with the extent of the severe weather threat largely
determined by how much festering convection remains earlier in the
day, which may limit the amount of instability. Afternoon high
temperatures Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Shower and storm chances will continue into early Thursday, with
the severe weather threat waning with time later Wednesday night.
Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday, but additional
storm development Thursday afternoon and evening appears unlikely
due to subsidence behind the departing upper trough.

Another upper trough will move across the plains late Friday into
Saturday, with an accompanying cold front moving across the area
Friday night and early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely accompany the front, with severe weather possible late
Friday afternoon into the night, mainly in the form of damaging
winds.

Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the
front this weekend, with near normal temperatures returning for
the first part of next week. Rain chances look to return around
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Ongoing MCS will affect the NW AR TAF sites over the next hour or
two with IFR potential and strong wind gusts. Activity is expected
to stay north of KMLC and KFSM, though activity is close enough to
KFSM to warrant a TEMPO mention. MCS exits the area over the next
few hours and then the focus will be overspread of MVFR cigs by
daybreak. Cigs then expected to climb to low-end VFR by midday
Wednesday. CAMs show some potential for spotty showers and storms
during the early afternoon at the NW AR sites and will use a
PROB30 to cover. Main activity develops across NE OK by mid to
late afternoon and will eventually evolve into an MCS sweeping
east and south across the region through the end of the TAF
period, assuming CAMs have a decent grasp of situation. Used
TEMPOs to highlight time windows with highest threat. Threat ends
by the tail end of the forecast at most sites.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  67 /  70  60  10  10
FSM   80  65  85  66 /  70  80  30  10
MLC   78  64  85  67 /  80  60   0  10
BVO   79  59  84  65 /  70  60   0   0
FYV   77  60  81  63 /  70  80  30  10
BYV   77  61  80  64 /  70  80  30   0
MKO   78  61  84  66 /  80  60  10  10
MIO   76  60  81  65 /  80  80  10   0
F10   78  61  85  66 /  80  50   0  10
HHW   78  63  83  65 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30