FXUS64 KTSA 150452 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Severe storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the rest of this week. - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected Friday into Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm and humid airmass will remain over the area through Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. Severe storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the extent of the severe weather threat largely determined by how much festering convection remains earlier in the day, which may limit the amount of instability. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Shower and storm chances will continue into early Thursday, with the severe weather threat waning with time later Wednesday night. Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday, but additional storm development Thursday afternoon and evening appears unlikely due to subsidence behind the departing upper trough. Another upper trough will move across the plains late Friday into Saturday, with an accompanying cold front moving across the area Friday night and early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with severe weather possible late Friday afternoon into the night, mainly in the form of damaging winds. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front this weekend, with near normal temperatures returning for the first part of next week. Rain chances look to return around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period. One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact most sites, with the initial round affecting most sites in the 02-08Z time range. Another round of showers and storms is expected sometime later Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 78 62 85 / 70 70 60 10 FSM 67 80 65 85 / 60 70 80 30 MLC 66 78 64 85 / 70 80 60 0 BVO 62 79 59 84 / 50 70 60 0 FYV 63 77 60 81 / 80 70 80 30 BYV 65 77 61 80 / 70 70 80 30 MKO 64 78 61 84 / 80 80 60 10 MIO 63 76 60 81 / 70 80 80 10 F10 64 78 61 85 / 70 80 50 0 HHW 66 78 63 83 / 40 70 70 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05