FXUS64 KTSA 141651
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today
   into Wednesday.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of
   the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of
   precipitation.

 - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially
   severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before
   cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area.
Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High
temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper
level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across
the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop
over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into
the area.

Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon,
moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly
show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This
implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to
wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large
instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development.
A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on
before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain
discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up,
the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears.
With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of
showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also
be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well
as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur.
For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and
east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast
area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best
lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is
fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms
developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS
finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours.
It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it
could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample
moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is
certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist.
Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like
today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well.

Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from
the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and
breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push
through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be
quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly
straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to
the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with
damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few
days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and
drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR cigs should scatter out or become VFR this afternoon. The
latest CAM guidance suggests NE OK, and especially KBVO, stands
the best chance for storms through tonight. Used TEMPO at KBVO
and PROB30s at the other NE OK sites. Also used some PROB30
mention over in far NW AR toward Wed morning with some hints of
showers or isolated storms there. MVFR cigs are expected to return
to some sites toward the tail end of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  65  78  61 /  30  80  70  70
FSM   83  67  80  64 /  20  60  50  90
MLC   81  66  77  64 /  20  70  70  70
BVO   85  64  79  56 /  40  80  70  70
FYV   81  63  76  61 /  20  60  70  90
BYV   83  65  76  61 /  20  60  60  90
MKO   82  64  76  62 /  30  70  70  80
MIO   83  64  76  60 /  30  80  70  80
F10   83  65  77  62 /  30  70  70  70
HHW   81  65  78  64 /  20  40  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30