FXUS65 KTWC 150858
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
158 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures remain just below normal Wednesday,
then returning to near to slightly above normal levels Thursday
and Friday, though some breezy winds are expected both days.
Temperatures warm up to above normal levels this weekend with
easterly breezes Sunday into early next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A Pacific low will begin to dig south into the
Great Basin today then move into the Rockies Thursday and
Friday. The core of the trough is expected to stay to the
north in Utah. At the same time a weak shortwave will be moving
through Baja and Sonora. This system will be dry with the main
impact to sensible weather being another round of gusty
west/southwest winds Thursday and Friday afternoons. Expect
speeds 12-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Winds will be most
widespread Thursday and from Tucson eastward on Friday. It's
looking like winds will be below critical fire weather
thresholds, but there could be isolated small areas that briefly
see Red Flag conditions Thursday. Temperatures today and Friday
will be a couple degrees below normal, and a couple degrees
above normal Thursday.

This weekend into early next week ridging will be in place over
the Intermountain West with a strong closed Pacific low sitting
off the West Coast. Cluster analysis shows variance in how
quickly this low moves onshore with the EPS favoring a quicker
eastward progression. At the surface high pressure sets up over
the southern Plains, leading to a strong easterly pressure
gradient over southeast Arizona. This will translate into gusty
southeast winds for most of southeast Arizona Sunday into Monday
morning, especially in the Gila River Valley. This could lead
to critical fire weather conditions for portions of Graham
County Sunday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will see a
warming trend becoming 3-7 degrees above normal Saturday into
early next week. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with Tucson
seeing around a 40 percent chance to hit 90 degrees.

&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12z.
SKC through the period. SFC winds variable less than 8 kts this
morning, becoming WLY/NWLY 5-10 kts aft 15/19Z. After 16/02Z
winds become light and variable again. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today winds will be mostly light and terrain
driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move to our
north Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty
winds. While RH values are expected to meet critical thresholds,
wind speeds don't look like they'll be strong enough to warrant
Red Flag headlines. Regardless, at least near critical fire
weather conditions are expected during this period. Light winds
return Saturday then gusty easterly winds are expected Sunday
into Monday morning. Winds could be strong enough in the Gila
River Valley Sunday to lead to areas of critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Hardin

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