AWUS01 KWNH 142357
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-150556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin and Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142356Z - 150556Z

Summary...Deep convection will continue to produce heavy rainfall
while migrating eastward through Wisconsin, across Lake Michigan,
and eventually into Lower Michigan.  Flash flooding is likely
given ongoing impacts and local sensitivities in the region.

Discussion...Deep convection has evolved as expected from the
Mississippi River eastward across much of Wisconsin and
northeastern Iowa.  Favorable interactions with a warm frontal
zone and steep lapse rates aloft have enabled intense updrafts and
embedded mesocyclones to occasionally merge and produce spots of 2
inches/hr of rainfall at times.  Areas of flash flooding are
possible in the short term.

Of particular concern is the potential for storms to expand
northeastward and eastward in coverage.  The position of warm
frontal zone over central Wisconsin and cooler Lake Michigan
waters may weaken convection as storms move atop slightly
cooler/stable low-level air, although very steep lapse rates aloft
downstream should maintain convection as it migrates toward areas
that have experienced 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past 3 days,
with ongoing impacts to local watersheds in the area.  FFGs fall
to below 1 inch/hr in a few downstream areas, highlighting the
sensitivity of the ground conditions there.  Approaching heavy
rainfall may worsen ongoing recovery efforts and perhaps cause new
instances of flash flooding to occur.

Peak flash flood potential will spread into northeastern Wisconsin
in the 00-04Z timeframe and eventually spread into Lower Michigan
generally from 02Z onward.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...DVN...GRB...GRR...IWX...LOT...
MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   45408569 45298379 44028325 42218366 41788510
            41898733 42518836 42508976 43319091 44929033
            45348892