AWUS01 KWNH 150024
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150023Z - 150623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to not only persist, but
train and repeat over areas very near the WI/IL border vicinity
over the next several hours.  Flash flooding is likely, and
significant impacts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature convective
complex with embedded linear structures and mesocyclones extending
from south-central WI (near Madison) southwestward to near Dubuque
and Cedar Rapids.  Other convection was anchored/backbuilding near
a warm front close to and just north of Milwaukee.  Each of these
convective clusters were producing expanding cold pools that were
progressively orienting perpendicular to increasing southwesterly
low-level flow, with 45kts now noted on mesoanalyses at 850mb
across much of IA/IL.  Latest indications are that these
convective clusters will continue to backbuild and train owing to
convergence along strengthening outflows and strong upstream
buoyancy (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE).

The scenario is beginning to favor multiple hours of repeating
convection (1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates) very close to where ongoing
convection exists currently.  Localized 3-5 inch rainfall totals
are possible over the next 6 hours.  This could result in
significant flash flood potential as FFG thresholds across the
area are only at around 1 inch/hr and will be readily exceeded.
This potential will likely exist through 06Z/1a central, with
populated areas near Madison, Milwaukee, Rockford, and perhaps
Chicago potentially experiencing impacts.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43498958 43368824 42998765 41958741 41538758
            41248859 41319028 41369158 41559227 41839253
            42249259 43009239 43179125