FXHW01 KWNH 150838
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 00Z Thu 16 Apr 2026 - 00Z Thu 23 Apr 2026

The trades that have been disrupted significantly lately,
associated with the stalled front/shear line emanating from the
strong closed low north of the Island, will begin to return to
more normal by the end of this week and into the weekend as
surface high pressure builds to the north of the state near 40-45N
and the stalled front/shear line dissipates. Model consensus is
for a more normal trade pattern to then persist through much of
the next week.

Models continue to show a new mid to upper level trof forming
along approximately 170W late this week and remaining there
through Saturday before lifting off to the northeast by Sunday
into early next week. At the moment, this trof does not appear
to be a significant precip producer for much of the Islands. Kauai
may see some precip from this trof Sunday into Monday as it gets
kicked eastward. Otherwise, the remainder of the Islands should
see a more typical trades precipitation distribution for much of
the forecast period.

PW values are forecast to remain much above average across the
state through the upcoming period, with values 2 to 3 standard
deviations above the mean. This will support potentially heavier
than normal trades showers into the middle of next week.

Oravec