ACUS11 KWNS 141824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141824 TXZ000-142100- Mesoscale Discussion 0421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau into Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141824Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a dryline this afternoon will pose a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. A watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and GLM Flash data indicate ongoing thunderstorm development across the Chisos Mountains within the Texas Big Bend region. Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a dryline across much of West Texas and across the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the low/mid-80s F and dewpoints in the mid-60s F underneath steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater). Effective bulk shear of 35-45+ kts and straight, elongated hodographs will support supercells (both left- and right-moving) capable of large to very large hail of 2-3+ inches in diameter and severe wind gusts. A gradually strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will likely support at least some increase in the tornado threat later this evening, especially with any persistent, discrete supercell(s); however, the core of the low-level jet is forecast to be displaced farther to the northeast. Thus, the magnitude of the tornado threat remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Regardless, watch issuance will likely be needed by 21z. With time, some gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with ongoing storms, with an associated increase in the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29240278 29050292 28950320 29200328 29920317 31950219 32480174 32990115 33240047 33219980 33049926 32809907 32549902 31809967 31200022 30590082 30160132 29880156 29650193 29700241 29510262 29240278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN