ACUS11 KWNS 152318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152318
TXZ000-OKZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...North and central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

Valid 152318Z - 160045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated wind damage threat will continue
with storm clusters/supercells across north Texas, and additional
cluster development is possible into central Texas (where an
extension in area might need to be considered).

DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing in clusters with some embedded
supercells along a conglomerate outflow from Stephens into Jack Cos.
 These storms are in the corridor of greatest buoyancy now, with
gradual buoyancy decrease with eastward extent as a result of
thicker cloud cover.  A continuation of MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
with relatively long/straight hodographs will support supercells
with large hail and isolated wind damage in a cluster-type mode for
the next couple of hours, given the more SW-NE orientation of the
dryline and storm-scale outflows.  The new updraft development
farther southwest to near SJT could necessitate an extension to
roughly Tom Green and Concho Cos. in the next 30 minutes.

..Thompson.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33459874 33929777 33769693 33439710 32699832 31769926
            31209987 30920059 31110077 31620034 33149915 33459874

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN