ACUS11 KWNS 150028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150028
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 150028Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur
along a cold front sagging into parts of NE/KS/IA/MO.  A few severe
thunderstorms may occur with large hail being the main concern.  A
watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging
southward across parts of NE/IA.  Meanwhile, strengthening
southwesterly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture
northward, with 60s dewpoints now as far north as northern
MO/central KS.  The leading edge of the richer moisture is expected
to begin interacting with the approaching cold front in the next
couple of hours, leading to rapid thunderstorm development.
Sufficient shear profiles will promote a risk of organized multicell
and occasional supercell structures, capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon for this activity.

..Hart.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39979789 40999551 41479305 41249224 40669221 40359314
            39799544 39479698 39369767 39629799 39979789

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN