ACUS11 KWNS 152316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152315 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-160115- Mesoscale Discussion 0456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and northern Missouri into central and eastern Iowa into far western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 152315Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 122. Hail and damaging winds are likely. A couple tornadoes also remain possible. A downstream WW could be needed later this evening, though storm longevity is unclear. DISCUSSION...Across WW122, several clusters of severe supercells have emerged early this evening, one northeast of the KC Metro and another broader cluster into central IA. Numerous reports of severe hail have occurred with these storms thus far. The environment continues to be favorable for supercells and large hail with moderate buoyancy and 50 kt of deep-layer shear. Some clustering has already been noted, and is likely to continue. Additional development has been noted behind these initial storms as the cold front has overtaken the dryline. With expected upscale growth (supported by radar trends and recent CAMS) a greater risk for damaging winds may evolve with a line/cluster over the next couple of hours across central and northern MO. While low-level shear is modest, at least some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains possible. A slight increase in low-level hodograph size this evening across northern MO and southeast IA could support somewhat better tornado chances (in addition to damaging gusts) if an established line or bow with organized mesovorticies evolves. However, this is uncertain. Given the broadly favorable environment, the severe risk will continue across WW122. Downstream, the loss of diurnal heating casts significant uncertainty on storm longevity later this evening. Some severe risk may persist, and a downstream watch appears possible. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX... EAX... LAT...LON 38049391 38269447 39049457 40819366 41679312 41729305 42539162 42629079 42548964 42398935 41958947 41288983 39179118 38379225 38099310 38049315 38009334 38049391 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN