FXAK68 PAFC 161335
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday night)...

Southwesterly flow aloft is the story over Southcentral today with
an upper level trough and surface low in the Bering Sea. There is
enough moisture to bring in areas of snow this morning which will
mix with or turn to rain depending on region and elevation. It is
just a generally sloppy pattern until the upper level trough moves
through the region on Saturday.

While Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley will get some snow this
morning, accumulations are expected to be low. However, there are
some areas toward the Alaska Range that have potential for some
more meaningful snowfall amounts. The main area of concern is
along the Richardson highway from around Paxson northward through
Isabel Pass. This region is likely to see a long duration light
snowfall that produces 6 or more inches over a day or two. There
remains a bit of model uncertainty with the strength and timing of
the upper level trough and how much lift it will provide in that
area. There is also a chance for the snowfall to become heavier
Friday afternoon through Friday night with higher accumulations
occurring as well as the snowfall lingering into Saturday
afternoon if the upper level trough takes longer to move through.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3:)...

Currently, widespread light mixed precipitation is being observed
across Southwest Alaska. This is due to many weak shortwaves
passing through the region. Diurnal swings in temperature are
allowing for snow at night and a mix of rain/snow or rain during
the day. Wind speeds will remain lighter for inland areas and
mostly sub-small craft for the Bering except for the western
Aleutians. This pattern will persist through the rest of the day
and into Friday morning.

Changes arise on Friday when an unseasonably strong low moves
into the Bering. Storm force winds and moderate to heavy
precipitation are expected for the Adak region as the sting jet
moves over the area. Precipitation may start as mixed before
transitioning to all rain as warm air advection moves in. The low
will slowly move east over the weekend. The leading front
will allow for the potential for blowing snow in the Pribilof
Islands for a few hours early Saturday morning before temperatures
warm. A small period of blowing snow is allow possible for
coastal areas in the Kuskokwim Delta Saturday afternoon as the
front pushes inland. Despite the warm air advection in front of
the low, cold air will wrap around the back of the low, allowing
for higher instability and showery precipitation to form over the
Bering as the low moves east. Looking ahead into Monday reveals an
Arctic trough dipping into Southwest Alaska, potentially cooling
low temperatures into the teens and single digits in the Southwest
Mainland by Monday night. Lingering precipitation from the strong
low means widespread snowfall is possible on Monday.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An active pattern persists Saturday through Tuesday. An
unseasonably strong North Pacific storm will have crossed into the
Bering Sea on Friday, bringing heavy rain and storm-force winds
to the Aleutian Chain as far east as Unalaska; meanwhile,
precipitation continues across Southcentral Alaska, maintaining
cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday (some areas may
see a short respite late Saturday).


By Sunday and into Monday, the low in the Bering Sea will merge
into the broad low-pressure system anchored over Mainland Alaska,
pulling cooler air back into the region from the north and
spreading moderate precipitation across Southcentral;
precipitation will likely change into a rain-snow mix across
southern Alaska. While specific timing remains unclear at this
time, the overall pattern suggests continued unsettled weather
for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska with temperatures
likely dropping below seasonal averages.

AB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow will linger in the area through mid morning as
ceilings are maintained at MVFR to VFR levels. Cloud cover
remains below 5000 ft throughout the day before a rain/snow mix
moves into the region this afternoon. Ceilings will gradually
decrease from VFR to MVFR this afternoon then to IFR this evening.
Once precip moves in, visibilities will slightly drop as well.
Mixed precip transitions to all snow this evening as well and is
maintained overnight tonight.


PA

&&


$$