FXHW60 PHFO 150638
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
838 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands
producing light and variable winds with chances for showers
through Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a
short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends
from Thursday night into Saturday. A series of low pressure
systems passing just north of the state will produce light
southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
The large scale weather pattern remains unusual for this time of
year due to the absence of a high pressure ridge that normally
sets up just north of the Hawaiian Islands producing persistent
and stable easterly trade winds. Large scale wind speeds will
remain light, allowing local scale onshore sea breezes to develop
daily over all islands. In the short range forecast cloudy skies
and chances for light to moderate rain will continue.

Several slow moving low pressure systems passing north of the
island chain will keep trade winds away for most of the seven day
forecast time period lasting into next week. A brief return of
easterly trade winds from Thursday night into Saturday will be
fleeting. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of
the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into
the middle of next week.

The current forecast grids look reasonable for this weather
pattern, no evening updates.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026

This afternoon's radar and satellite imagery shows an increase of
moderate to locally heavy showers over parts of windward Kauai and
central Oahu as a result of the day time sea breeze convergence
and lingering moisture over the western half of the state. For
tonight, we should generally see showers decrease across the state
with land breezes developing over many areas.

For Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will gradually fill in
from east to west across the state with moderate trades expected
by Thursday. Although the weather will be cloudy at times due to
the upper level trough to our west, lower levels of the atmosphere
will be fairly dry with mainly some isolated to scattered showers
expected. The one exception is over Kauai, where we could see
afternoon showers develop Wednesday afternoon over interior areas.
Drier conditions are expected by Thursday for Kauai.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see an upper level trough
digging down into the vicinity of the state from the northwest.
The latest 12Z guidance continues to show the main moisture
staying off to the west of the state with a surface low developing
this weekend and lifting off to the north on both the GFS and
ECMWF models. A subtle shift with the trough further east could
change the weekend forecast quite a bit, so at this time the
forecast for the weekend still remains uncertain. At the very
least, we will likely see an increase of showers due to some low
level moisture moving in from the east. Moderate easterly trades
on Friday will likely gradually weaken and veer towards the
southeast over the weekend especially around Sunday

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 350 PM HST Tue Apr 14 2026

Mostly VFR, but isolated IFR in low clouds persists, especially at
PHNY. This should end this evening. There is a chance of showers
at PHLI through early evening, with brief MVFR possible, but not
expected. Winds will increase slightly overnight and become
generally southeast Wednesday. ENE trades should return Thursday.

No AIRMETs in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak troughing remains in place west of the state and will help to
maintain gentle to locally moderate southeast flow through
Thursday. Building high pressure then supports locally fresh
trades across the waters Friday into the weekend.

A small, short-period, NW swell will continue to diminish into
the weekend. A small, medium- period, S swell will boost surf
along S shores through Friday, then subside over the weekend.
Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades
remain light. Increasing trades by week's end then brings a slight
bump to surf.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...JT