115 FGUS74 KLUB 152047 ESFLUB Hydrologic Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 347 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ..Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook For The Brazos River Basin In West Central Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Lubbock Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in West Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Double Mountain Fork Of The Brazos River near Aspermont 10S has a Flood Stage of 21.0 Feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Aspermont Forecast Point will rise above 7.9 feet during the next 90 days. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID [ 04/14/2026 - 07/14/2026 ] LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SALT FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER ASPERMONT 13N 12.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.7 DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS RIVER Justiceburg 19.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.7 11.3 Aspermont 10S 21.0 5.1 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.8 9.9 11.2 Lake Alan Henry 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2213.3 2213.3 2213.3 2213.4 2213.5 2213.8 2214.3 2215.0 2219.6 This Long Range Probabilistic Outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lub Long-Range Probabilistic Outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$  745 FGUS74 KSJT 152049 ESFSJT TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-431- 441-451-162100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long range probabilistic outlook for the Colorado River Basin in West Central Texas The National Weather Service office in San Angelo Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for The Colorado River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: the Colorado River near Silver has a flood stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the forecast point at Silver will rise above 5.3 feet during the next 90 Days. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 04/15/2026 - 07/14/2026 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Colorado River Silver 22.0 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.4 7.4 8.8 Robert Lee 33.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Ballinger 18.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.7 8.3 13.0 14.2 16.5 Stacy 40.0 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 Winchell 26.0 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.9 7.3 8.8 9.5 13.5 14.1 San Saba 30.0 3.2 3.8 5.4 5.9 8.1 9.8 13.2 17.3 20.4 Elm Creek Ballinger 7.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.2 North Concho River Sterling City 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 10.9 Carlsbad 12.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.4 5.3 7.6 Middle Concho River Tankersley 18.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.8 11.8 Spring Creek Tankersley 14.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.0 5.8 Dove Creek Knickerbocker 26.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.7 5.0 6.6 South Concho River Christoval 10.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.7 Pecan Creek San Angelo 10.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Concho River San Angelo 26.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.8 6.0 Paint Rock 26.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.4 14.7 15.4 Pecan Bayou Cross Cut 33.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.8 9.5 Brownwood 20.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.3 7.7 8.8 13.1 Mullin 45.0 6.3 6.3 6.6 7.5 8.0 8.7 12.1 14.2 21.2 Brady Creek Brady 26.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 8.2 8.4 San Saba River Menard 18.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 7.0 8.8 11.1 Brady 30.0 2.8 2.9 3.5 4.2 5.0 5.2 6.3 8.0 9.4 San Saba 24.0 3.8 4.5 6.1 9.1 11.2 15.1 18.6 22.9 24.6 North Llano River Junction 21.0 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.3 11.6 15.5 Llano River Junction 16.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.7 11.7 Mason 23.0 7.8 7.8 8.1 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 12.1 14.8 Beaver Creek Mason 12.0 7.1 7.9 8.4 8.6 9.5 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.6 Oak Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1976.7 1976.7 1976.7 1976.7 1976.7 1976.7 1977.2 1978.8 1982.5 Lake Coleman 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1716.8 1716.8 1717.2 1717.5 1717.8 1717.9 1718.4 1719.3 1721.8 Lake Brownwood 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1421.8 1422.0 1422.7 1423.1 1423.4 1424.6 1425.3 1425.9 1427.6 Brady Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1742.3 1742.3 1742.3 1742.3 1742.3 1742.5 1742.9 1743.7 1744.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$  330 FGUS74 KSJT 152050 ESFSJT TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-431- 441-451-162100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River basin in West Central Texas The National Weather Service office in San Angelo, Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Clear Fork of the Brazos River near Roby has a flood stage of 18 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Roby forecast point will rise above 7.5 feet during the next 90 days. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 04/15/2026 - 07/14/2026 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Clear Fork Brazos River Roby 18.0 3.9 3.9 4.7 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.4 10.3 13.1 Hawley 14.0 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.4 4.2 5.3 7.2 Nugent 18.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 Ft Griffin 35.0 6.6 6.8 7.5 7.9 9.5 10.8 13.9 15.1 19.0 California Creek Stamford 28.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 9.7 11.6 14.0 Hubbard Creek Albany 35.0 4.5 4.8 5.7 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.0 12.3 21.4 Lake Sweetwater 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2094.2 2094.2 2094.2 2094.2 2094.2 2094.2 2095.6 2096.6 2098.4 Lake Ft Phantom Hill 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1631.0 1631.0 1631.0 1631.1 1631.2 1631.3 1631.8 1632.6 1634.5 Lake Stamford 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1414.2 1414.2 1414.2 1414.2 1414.2 1414.3 1414.4 1414.6 1415.5 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$  438 FGUS74 KFWD 152052 ESFFWD Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 352 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River near South Bend has a Flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the South Bend forecast point will rise above 10.4 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/15/2026 - 07/14/2026 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Big Sandy Creek Breckenridge 24.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 7.7 9.4 15.6 23.4 29.8 Upper Brazos River South Bend 21.0 4.8 5.7 6.2 8.3 10.4 12.6 14.4 17.4 21.2 Palo Pinto 18.0 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.7 5.8 7.2 8.5 10.2 13.8 Dennis 25.0 2.6 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.5 9.2 11.3 12.8 20.5 Glen Rose 29.0 5.2 5.2 6.8 8.7 9.6 10.4 12.1 13.3 18.9 Aquilla 29.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 12.1 21.1 Paluxy River Glen Rose 22.0 2.7 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.9 9.6 17.6 Nolan River Blum 24.0 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 4.1 5.0 13.1 Lower Brazos River Waco 27.0 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.5 6.4 8.0 12.1 19.4 Highbank 35.0 3.5 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.5 11.4 18.2 North Bosque River Hico 24.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.8 9.4 11.2 13.0 19.0 Clifton 23.0 3.1 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.7 8.3 10.6 13.4 19.0 Valley Mills 36.0 6.6 8.2 9.5 10.8 12.4 14.0 16.5 20.2 25.9 Hog Creek Crawford 14.0 1.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.2 5.0 Middle Bosque River McGregor 20.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.9 8.6 14.8 Sabana River De Leon 19.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.9 6.1 7.4 14.3 18.9 Leon River De Leon 12.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.9 4.2 6.5 9.9 13.9 Hamilton 26.0 4.2 5.1 6.3 7.4 8.6 9.1 10.8 15.7 17.1 Gatesville 22.0 3.3 4.6 6.9 7.4 7.6 10.5 12.2 13.8 18.7 Belton 14.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.7 Cowhouse Creek Pidcoke 20.0 3.0 4.8 5.2 7.0 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.4 14.4 Lampasas River Kempner 18.0 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.1 7.2 10.6 Little River Little River 30.0 4.8 6.2 6.7 7.5 10.7 11.1 12.3 16.8 22.3 Rockdale 30.0 5.8 6.8 7.6 9.9 13.0 15.6 19.7 23.7 31.5 Cameron 30.0 2.7 3.3 4.1 6.0 8.8 11.3 14.5 19.0 25.7 Navasota River Groesbeck 7.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.0 4.9 6.8 8.3 9.7 11.0 Easterly 19.0 6.1 7.5 10.2 11.5 15.7 19.9 20.3 21.1 22.8 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Graham 1070.7 1070.7 1070.7 1070.7 1071.0 1071.3 1071.9 Hubbard Cr Lk 1169.6 1169.6 1169.6 1169.6 1169.8 1170.5 1171.2 Lk Leon 1371.8 1371.8 1371.8 1371.8 1371.9 1372.0 1372.9 20% 10% --- --- Lk Graham 1073.2 1076.8 Hubbard Cr Lk 1172.0 1177.6 Lk Leon 1374.2 1377.0 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Palo Pinto 866.3 866.3 866.3 866.8 867.0 867.1 867.3 867.6 868.3 Lk Pat Cleburne 733.0 733.0 733.1 733.2 733.3 733.6 733.8 734.3 736.8 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$  066 FGUS74 KFWD 152052 ESFFWD Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 352 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. Example: The South Fork of the Sabine River near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above 17.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/15/2026 - 07/14/2026 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Fork Sabine River Quinlan 15.0 14.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.0 Cowleech Fork Sabine River Greenville 14.0 7.1 10.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Tawakoni 437.2 437.3 437.4 437.5 438.0 438.3 439.0 439.6 440.0 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$  670 FGUS74 KFWD 152053 ESFFWD Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 353 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Trinity River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. Example: The West Fork of the Trinity River near Jacksboro has a flood stage of 20 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Jacksboro forecast point will rise above 7.9 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/15/2026 - 07/14/2026 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- West Fork Trinity River Jacksboro 20.0 4.8 4.8 5.5 6.0 7.9 13.0 17.5 20.1 22.3 Boyd 16.0 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.5 15.1 17.8 19.2 Fort Worth 20.0 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.4 11.6 Grand Prairie 30.0 7.6 9.0 10.3 12.6 13.8 14.9 17.9 20.2 28.9 Big Sandy Creek Bridgeport 12.0 1.5 2.9 3.1 4.2 4.8 6.3 7.2 9.7 12.2 Clear Fork Trinity River Weatherford 15.0 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 13.2 15.8 Fort Worth 15.0 9.9 10.6 10.9 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.2 Denton Creek Justin 10.0 4.8 5.8 6.9 8.4 9.4 11.3 11.9 13.7 14.6 Elm Fork Trinity River Gainesville 22.0 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.3 8.0 14.4 17.4 18.7 24.2 Carrollton 9.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.5 7.9 8.7 9.4 Clear Creek Sanger 25.0 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.7 12.4 13.5 15.3 21.1 24.8 Sister Grove Creek Blue Ridge 24.0 16.4 18.3 20.1 20.9 22.2 23.0 26.1 27.3 28.2 East Fork Trinity River Mckinney 16.0 7.6 12.4 14.3 15.0 15.5 15.7 16.7 18.3 18.8 Crandall 18.0 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 5.1 8.5 17.8 21.8 Chambers Creek Rice 24.0 7.2 8.3 8.8 10.4 11.2 11.7 15.9 24.3 28.9 Trinity River Dallas 30.0 20.4 23.7 25.3 27.3 28.9 30.6 32.8 34.7 39.0 Rosser 31.0 8.7 12.6 14.3 15.9 16.6 18.2 20.1 28.6 36.3 Trinidad 33.0 18.5 23.5 27.5 28.5 31.4 32.3 35.4 41.3 43.8 Long Lake 35.0 13.3 14.9 17.1 19.4 20.9 22.1 26.8 33.6 41.7 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Worth 597.0 593.0 593.2 593.8 594.1 594.3 594.5 595.2 595.7 596.9 Lk Arlington 550.0 550.4 550.6 550.8 551.3 551.6 552.1 552.5 556.6 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$