168 AWUS01 KWNH 132142 FFGMPD MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 541 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Much of Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and U.P. of Michigan Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 132140Z - 140330Z SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along a warm frontal boundary will organize into training lines of storms, over an area of saturated soils through this evening. Flash flooding likely. DISCUSSION... Several areas of convection have begun to form along a warm frontal boundary across much of Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota this afternoon. These storms are being fed by moisture influx with PWATs around 1 inch along the front, but over 1.3 inches along the Illinois/Wisconsin border, based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis. CAMs guidance is in good agreement that the storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS that will then support training storms propagating eastward across central and northern Wisconsin. A cold front shown across northern Minnesota will press southeastward and eventually help to push the MCS southward with time. Soils across Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly saturated due to recent rainfall and around the U.P. of Michigan, recent snowmelt as shown on NASA SPoRT imagery. With above average river levels and nearly saturated soils across nearly all of Wisconsin, almost all of the rainfall expected from this forecast MCS will convert to runoff quickly. FFGs across this region on average are around 1.5 inches/1 hour, 2 inches/3 hours, and 2.5 inches/6 hours. These values are likely to be exceeded with multiple rounds of training storms expected late this afternoon and this evening. The cells south of the Twin Cities have a history of rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches/hour at times, showing that the atmosphere is capable of rates exceeding these aforementioned FFG values. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT... ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763 43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312 44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141