353 

AWUS01 KWNH 142204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western North Texas and the
southeastern Texas Plains into southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142202Z - 150402Z

Summary...Ongoing convective evolution suggests an increasing
flash flood threat for areas near Vernon, Lawton, and eventually
toward the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma through 04Z/11p
Central.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues to increase in
coverage across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.
Recent surface obs indicate subtle veering of flow west of a
dryline across the Texas South Plains, and objective
analyses/satellite suggest subtle vort maxima riding atop the
dryline and over a warm, unstable airmass over the discussion
area.  These trends suggest continued expansion of convective
coverage across the discussion area over the next few hours
(especially as the low-level jet ramps up), with areas of training
and mergers expected to foster spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
especially near the Red River.

Antecedent conditions are a somewhat moist across the region from
prior heavy-rain events over the past week.  Sensitive terrain and
urbanized areas (near Lawton in particular) could also experience
a higher runoff risk.  The overall focus for flash flooding should
revolve around sensitive spots and locations of cell mergers -
with background/mean flow fields (around 35-45 knots) suggestive
that prolonged heavier rainfall (and >1.5 inch/hr rates/local FFG)
may not occur on a widespread basis.

Flash flooding is possible with this regime initially over
southwestern OK and western north Texas, with the risk spreading
northeastward toward I-35 in Oklahoma later tonight.

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35969737 35969640 34589601 33539662 33169844
            32870002 32960060 33570089 34530062 35180008
            35599891