228 

AWUS01 KWNH 152301
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Missouri, a small part of southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152259Z - 160459Z

Summary...Deep convection is organizing into clusters/segments
with localized training.  Localized flash flooding is possible
especially in low-spots and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection continues to mature along and east of a
dryline extending from near Kansas City south-southwestward to
near Bartlesville and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.  The storms are in
a very moist, unstable airmass (with 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) supporting locally heavy rainfall at times despite
appreciable storm motions of around 30-40 knots.

The storms are in an environment with modest forcing for ascent
due to the slow movement of the dryline, with an approaching
vort-max over Nebraska and confluence ahead of the dryline helping
to deepen and expand convective coverage.  Because storms aren't
strictly confined to the dryline, a few areas of training have
been noted (especially across far southwestern Missouri near
Joplin).  These trends should continue for several more hours as
evidence of any distinct upscale growth into forward-propagating
linear segments (that would effectively reduce rain rates) is
currently unclear.

Localized training/repeating is likely to result in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times on a localized basis.  These rain
rates will threaten local FFG thresholds, with local sensitivities
also contributing to a potential flash flood risk.  This risk will
persist for several hours this evening - perhaps through 03-04Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40509182 39399086 37999060 37039114 36699282
            36749448 37119532 38149503 39479452 40199364