430 AWUS01 KWNH 160012 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160609- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 810 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma, far north Texas, far western Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160009Z - 160609Z Summary...An axis of training convection has materialized from near Wichita Falls through Ardmore to near McAlister. This heavy rain axis should translate east-northeastward over the next few hours, with flash flooding possible especially across southern Oklahoma. Discussion...Initial scattered convection has recently aligned into a focused, training axis of cells along the Red River Valley this evening. The storms are in a weakly forced environment, with forcing for ascent resulting from the glancing influence of a mid-level wave over Nebraska and weakly confluent low-level flow across the region. The orientation of cells parallel to mean flow aloft - combined with their gradual maturity and establishment of cold pools - suggests that training convection will continue to be an issue for at least a few hours. This training band of convection will gradually translate east-northeastward into more of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far western Arkansas through the overnight hours. A secondary training band of convection near/north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex may also materialize over the next couple hours. Ground conditions are relatively dry in many areas, with hourly FFG thresholds exceeding 2-2.5 inches in spots. This suggests isolated flash flood potential across the region - mainly tied to low spots and/or urban areas. Persistence of training, however (as evidenced by 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ardmore) suggests that appreciable impacts may occur where rainfall is heaviest and most persistent. This isolated flash flood threat should persist for several hours - perhaps through 06Z/1a central. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35899509 35869426 34929421 33509505 33079635 32859832 34239831 35069740  285 FOUS62 KALR 160050 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 847 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20260416 Z DH00/DC202604160047 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.1/ 1.8/ 2.4 PRZ002 1.1/ 1.8/ 2.4 PRZ003 1.1/ 1.8/ 2.4 PRZ004 1.1/ 1.8/ 2.4 PRZ005 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ006 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ007 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ008 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ009 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ010 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ011 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.6 PRZ012 1.8/ 2.8/ 3.9 PRZ013 1.8/ 2.8/ 3.9 VIZ001 2.0/ 3.2/ 4.5 VIZ002 2.1/ 3.3/ 4.6 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions