433 

FXUS01 KWBC 160816
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 18 2026

...Late-season snow for the Cascades, northern Plains, and
northern Rockies but early-season heat for the Mid-Atlantic...

...Severe thunderstorm threat diminishes today from the southern
Plains to the Midwest...

...An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast to emerge
from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest later on Wednesday
with heavy rain and possible flash flooding...

The strong Bermuda High that helps feeding Gulf moisture into the
southern Plains will begin to break down today.  The recent spell
of severe thunderstorms across the mid-section of the country and
across the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes will gradually
diminish today.  The break down of the Bermuda High will allow a
temporary break in the severe weather threat across the
mid-section of the country tonight into Friday before the arrival
of a potent cold front Friday night.  The rapid movement of this
front will forcefully clash with the warm air already in place
across the eastern half of the country.  The Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms
extending from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest mainly
from the Friday afternoon into Friday night.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes.  By Saturday morning,
heavy showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms should
be moving through the Midwest and into lower Michigan.  In
addition to the severe weather threats, a couple inches of heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding issues from Oklahoma to the
Midwest later on Friday into early on Saturday.

Under the strong ridge associated with the Bermuda High, anomalous
heat will continue today across the eastern U.S.  Afternoon high
temperatures will soar into the lower 90s, which will once again
be in record territories in the interior section of the
Mid-Atlantic.  As the Bermuda High weakens and breaks down during
the next couple of days, temperatures will gradually moderate but
the entire eastern U.S. will remain much warmer than normal for
April as we head into the weekend.

While the Mid-Atlantic is under an anomalous spell of April heat,
a strong cold front continues to march further inland across the
western U.S.  The arrival of this cold front is signaling a cold
snap that will sweep through much of western U.S. and well into
the Plains by Saturday morning.  Temperatures will be drastically
colder behind this potent front with below freezing temperatures
reaching the southern Rockies and the central Plains by Saturday
morning together with windy conditions.  A foot of new snow can be
expected along the Cascades.  Much of the northern and central
Rockies will receive a round of snow as well.  Rain changing to
and ending as snow can also be expected across the northern Plains
behind the cold front early on Friday as a low pressure system
develops over the central High Plains.  A round of wintry mix is
expected farther north from North Dakota to northern Minnesota
through the first half of Friday.  The low will then intensify and
track across the upper Great Lakes Friday night with a round of
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms extending south into the
enhanced risk of severe weather over the upper Midwest to the
southern Plains.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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