797 

AXPZ20 KNHC 171607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward
to the coast of Colombia near 07N77W, and continues to 08N86W to
05N96W to 06N108W to a 1012 mb low near 04N110W and to 02N114W.
The ITCZ begins at 06N112W and continues to 04N124W to 05N130W
and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm south of the trough between 97W-104W. Similar activity is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W-135W, also within
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 127W-130W, and within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 112W-115W. A southern- hemispheric ITCZ extends
from 02S87W to 02S106W to 04S121W to 03S130W and to beyond
03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 87W-91W, within 30 nm of the ITCZ between
103W-107W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N117W to 15N108W. The
related gradient is allowing for northwest moderate to fresh
winds west of the Baja California peninsula are moderate to
fresh. Southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California have
diminished to fresh speeds. Elsewhere over the Pacific and the
Gulf of California, winds are moderate or weaker in speeds. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over Pacific waters northwest
of Cabo Corrientes, 5 to 6 ft in south swell over the Pacific
to the southeast of Cabo Corrientes, 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf
of California, except for seas of 4 to 6 ft in the southern
section and slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period
south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. No deep convection is
occurring over the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northwest winds will occur
near Cabo San Lucas through early Sat. Additionally, large
northwest swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja
California Norte today through Sat. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores through the
weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of
America is expected to induce a strong to near gale Tehuantepec
gap wind event beginning Sun night into Tue.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. These winds reach westward to near 89W as
indicated in a recent scatterometer satellite data pass.
Elsewhere, winds across the Central American and equatorial
waters are moderate or weaker. Seas over the forecast waters are
5 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated
moderate convection is observed from 03S to 07S between 85W and
89WW near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, rather tranquil conditions are expected to
remain over the Central American and the equatorial waters
through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area at
33N137W, with a ridge extending from it through 30N125W to
20N117W and to near 15N108W. The weak pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower associated to the ITCZ is allowing for
only moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast
waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep
convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during
the next few days. Large northwest swell will impact waters
north of 28N and east of 125W today through Fri night. Otherwise,
little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the northwest
part of the discussion our NW corner at 30N140W early on Sun.
The frontal boundary should move eastward while gradually
weakening, accompanied by large northwest to north swell. The
swell should reach near 20N and west of 130W by Tue.

$$
Aguirre