895 AXPZ20 KNHC 180318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to 07N90W to 05N110W. The ITCZ extends from 05N110W to 07N120W to 05N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 01.5S97W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04S to 05N between 84W and 106W. Similar convection is depicted from 02.5N to 09N between 116W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 34N132W the associated ridge extends to 14N and west of 111W. A dissipating stationary front dropping southeastward is analyzed over the California/northern Baja border at 32.5N116.5W to 27.5N115W. No significant winds and convective activity is present with this front. The pressure gradient in place is allowing for northwest moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds are gentle to locally moderate across the Gulf of California. Elsewhere over the Pacific, winds are moderate or weaker in speeds. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell over Pacific waters northwest of Cabo Corrientes, 5 to 6 ft in south swell over the Pacific to the southeast of Cabo Corrientes, 2 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except for seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern section and slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- period south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northwest winds will occur near Cabo San Lucas through early Sat. Northwest swell will briefly impact the waters west of Baja California Norte through early Sat. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a strong to near gale Tehuantepec gap wind event beginning Sun night into Tue. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the general weather pattern into the middle of next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail in the Papagayo region. These winds reach westward to near 92W. Elsewhere, winds across the Central American and equatorial waters are moderate or weaker. Seas over the forecast waters are 4 to 6 ft in long- period south to southwest swell. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 83W and 87W. Scattered showers are over and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, rather tranquil conditions are expected to remain over the Central American and the equatorial waters through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area at 34N132W, with a ridge extending southeastward to 14N and west 111W. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower associated to the ITCZ is allowing for only moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except for seas 8 to 9 ft north of 28N between 121W and 127.5W. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next few days. Northwest swell producing seas to near 8 ft over the extreme northeast part, will decay early on Sat allowing for the seas to lower below 8 ft. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the northwest part of the discussion late Sat into early on Sun. The cold front will move southeastward while gradually weakening and accompanied by large northwest to north swell. The swell should reach near 20N and west of 126W by Tue late night. Seas to around 10 ft are expected with the swell. $$ KRV  421 AXNT20 KNHC 180349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the western half of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Latest buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light to gentle winds in the eastern portion of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the far southeastern part of the basin near western Cuba and in the Straits of Florida. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft are over the remainder of the Gulf, except for lower seas of less than 3 ft in the NE and eastern Gulf sections. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to across the eastern portion of Hispaniola. A surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture east of these features in combination with dynamics aloft related to the mid to upper-level trough is resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail E of 67W. The unsettled weather conditions will continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface trough extends southward from near 28N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. The pressure gradient related to high pressure of 1023 mb north of the area at 32N48W is generally providing for light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within this area of winds as noted in SoFar buoy and altimeter satellite data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week. $$ ERA